Publications

I’ve received a number of comments on my post yesterday about Libya’s new (draft) election law, so I’m revisiting that topic again today. First, for those of you who are interested (and several have asked), here’s a link to an unofficial English translation of the draft law. Second, in a new development, the Libyan interim government yesterday scrapped the 1972 law banning political parties. In anticipation of this, new parties have been forming over the past several months and many more are undoubtedly in the wings. Civil society, lacking for decades in Libya, is resurrecting itself, although the challenges it faces will be formidable. Religiously oriented groups will likely have an edge both in organizational capacity and in financing.

Now that I’ve had a bit more time to peruse the full translation, I will note a few additional concerns: (more…)

As the world adjusts to seven billion people, and begins its creep toward eight billion, doing more with less will become increasingly important. Continuing economic stagnation and budgetary concerns in OECD countries will also put stress on existing commitments of foreign assistance and hamper new initiatives. Greater efficiency and effectiveness in development is paramount. Below are three trends to watch in the coming year that can help improve development outcomes. (more…)

Agricultural is the third largest productive sector of Egypt’s economy after manufacturing and mining, which includes oil and gas. It represents 14 percent of overall GDP, but directly employs at least a third of Egypt’s labor force, and indirectly employs many more through the processing and transportation of agricultural products. Nonetheless, Egyptian agriculture has long been neglected by politicians. Cotton production has dropped over 75 percent from 1972 to 2009, and the amount of arable land (2.4 percent of Egypt’s territory) has hardly budged in that time.

Egypt stands to gain by in multiple ways by investing in its agricultural sector. First and foremost, given that agricultural laborers represent such a large portion of the working population, an increase in their real wages would stimulate economic growth. With 22 percent of the population living under the poverty line, equitable economic growth remains one of Egypt’s most pressing priorities. Secondly, Egypt continues to face food security issues. The portion of the population that is food-insecure relies on government fuel and food subsidies that are a persistent drag on the Egyptian economy. Interestingly, while poverty has, in fact, decreased in recent years, Egypt is unique in that rates of child malnutrition have actually risen at the same time. While the cause of this rise in child malnutrition requires further research, it reveals the extent to which Egypt is dogged by insufficient social services, especially in rural areas, which are both the poorest and the most reliant on agriculture for their livelihoods. (more…)

On Tuesday, thousands of women gathered in Cairo to protest the brutal treatment of women at the hands of Egypt’s military, but especially, the savage beating of a female protester whose abaya was stripped from her, revealing her torso and bright blue bra. The footage and the image of her motionless body surrounded by soldiers, one poised to stomp on her chest, went viral on the internet and were splashed on newspapers all over the world. Tomorrow, women will march again. Sources on twitter say that the Muslim Brothers and Salafist groups are boycotting the march.

The incident highlights the military’s brutal crackdown on protesters, when many in the country have wondered if the ongoing sit-ins at Tahrir and the cabinet building were more obstructionist than revolutionary. Nonetheless, the military’s response has rightly drawn criticism from around the world. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Monday, “This systematic degradation of Egyptian women dishonors the revolution, disgraces the state and its uniform, and is not worthy of a great people.” Today, Fayza Aboul Naga, Egypt’s minister of planning and international cooperation and a hold-over from the Mubarak era, slammed Secretary Clinton’s remarks, saying that Egyptian women did not need foreigners to demand their rights and that they are capable of defending themselves. (more…)

Over the past year, the tumultuous events of the Arab uprisings have been gripping. Women have played a notable role in protesting against and overthrowing their governments. But how have they fared in the ongoing process of political reconstruction? Back in February, I warned in the Washington Post that the Mideast revolutions might not be so favorable for women. Over the summer, I wrote a longer article for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) examining the challenges that women face across the region. I revisit this topic in a piece for Foreign Policy. Bottom line: women in Tunisia seem to be holding their own, but developments in Libya and especially in Egypt are worrying for women. How new governments in the Middle East incorporate women’s rights will be a key marker for how they approach many other critical issues, including more broadly human rights, minority rights, and religious freedom. Stay tuned.

As Egypt began the second of three rounds of elections yesterday and commentators in and outside the country debate the prospects for democracy after large Islamist victories so far, its economic problems loom ever larger. As I wrote at the end of November, Egypt’s economic challenges include: a battered tourism industry, expensive food and fuel subsidies that are driving budget deficits, high yields on government debt, and most urgently, rapidly declining foreign currency reserves. To drive the point home, on Sunday, interim prime minister Kamal el-Ganzouri tearfully stated in a press conference that Egypt’s economy is “worse than anyone imagines.” Current estimates about Egypt’s foreign currency reserves surely factor into his sobering assessment. Today, a report was leaked that the government intends to cut expenditures by $3.3 billion, but indicated that the cuts would not hit health care, education, and pensions. According to the World Bank, Egypt spent 5 percent of its GDP on healthcare in 2009, and 3.8 percent on education in 2008. It seems possible, then, that Egypt may begin to cut its politically sensitive and popular subsidies, which are significant: currently, subsidies are about three times the size of the education budget. (more…)

Six weeks after Al Nahda swept elections for the national constituent assembly, a former human rights activist and leader of the liberal party, Congress for the Republic (CPR), Mancef Marzouki, was elected by the body as the interim president of Tunisia. The fourth president since Tunisia’s founding, Marzouki’s election is a remarkable step in the evolution of the uprising in Tunisia, though critics note that the power structure in the interim government will favor the prime minister, who will most certainly be a member of Al Nahda. Marzouki has 21 days to form a government, and then must turn to addressing the myriad challenges that Tunisia faces: rebuilding its tattered economy, finding jobs for its 800,000 unemployed citizens (over a quarter of whom have college degrees), and redefining the social contract by improving governance and curbing corruption. So far, Al Nahda, which will have a large hand in shaping Tunisia’s response to these challenges, has espoused pragmatism.

As I have written previously, Tunisia has always been an outlier in the region, but its preliminary successes through this transition are notable (90 percent of registered voters cast a ballot), and important for the trajectory of the uprisings in its North African neighbors. As Islamist parties are included in formal political life for the first time in Tunisia and Egypt, a competition between different ideas and visions of political Islam is unfolding. The outcome of this competition will determine the future of the relationship between states and their citizens in the region, and it is far from clear what vision will win out. (more…)

I recently hosted Ambassador Don Steinberg, Deputy Administrator of USAID, at an on-the-record CFR meeting to discuss the broad transformation underway at USAID. (You can view above a brief video interview that was filmed after the meeting.) This ambitious reform effort, called USAID Forward, is intended to reposition USAID as an “innovator” in global development, and also to establish a “relentless focus on results.” After years of decline (declining staff, declining expertise, declining reputation), USAID is adding personnel (850 new hires in the past 2 years), bringing experts in-house, gaining clarity around seven core priorities (food security, global health, climate change, sustainable economic growth, democracy promotion, humanitarian assistance, and conflict prevention), and introducing better measurement and evaluation (M&E) systems. Steinberg was optimistic about USAID’s ability to succeed in this transformation, although he spoke candidly about intensifying budget pressures, the imperative of convincing Americans that USAID can be “good stewards,” the rise of new actors in development (US official development assistance last year was roughly $30 billion, but private philanthropies donated some $36 billion to international development), and the ongoing cultural challenges involved in shifting the mission of this large bureaucracy (frankly, it’s hard to push innovation and risk-taking in a structurally risk-averse organization). (more…)

The first time I visited Afghanistan was in 2002. Ashura, the holiest Shiite holiday, was in full swing. As we drove up into the predominantly Shiite central highlands of Bamiyan–Hazara country–my Afghan traveling companions were amazed at the open expressions of Ashura. Processions clogged the single dirt road passing through small villages and long black flags on poles flapped in the wind. During the Taliban years, expressions of Shiism were suppressed by the the Taliban, the hardline Sunni fundamentalists who ruled the country and decried Shiism as apostasy.

The past decade has seen a relatively peaceful coexistence between religious sects in Afghanistan, but that was shattered today by a series of brutal, coordinated bombings in three cities that killed at least 63 people and raised fears of renewed sectarian conflict. A Sunni religious group from Pakistan, Lakshar-e-Jangvi, claimed responsibility for the attacks, which targeted Shiite Muslims participating in ceremonies to observe Ashura. (more…)

Since the first cases of AIDS came to public attention in 1981, the virus has claimed over 25 million lives worldwide. Preventing HIV transmission and providing care for the 34 million people living with the virus remains one of the foremost public health challenges of our time. Even in communities with high rates of HIV/AIDS, the virus is still too often a source of deep social stigma, dissuading those infected from seeking help. Although combating the spread of AIDS requires coordination and support from all sectors, key stakeholders have often exacerbated the epidemic. In South Africa, former President Mbeki’s rejection of the basic scientific consensus on AIDS led to an estimated 343,000 otherwise preventable deaths from 1999 to 2007. While religious leaders are unusually well-placed to provide followers with guidance about this preventable disease, they have in many cases contributed to the epidemic by denying the importance of condoms in HIV prevention and contributing to the stigma that AIDS patients already confront.

Nevertheless, even in light of the ongoing devastation of AIDS, our mixed response to it, and the current funding crunch, we can find a few glimmers of good news. The 2011 UNAIDS World AIDS Day Report indicates that the number of new HIV infections throughout the world decreased by 21 percent from 1997 to 2010. Although 1.8 million people died of AIDS last year, the increased availability of AIDS-fighting drugs resulted in an estimated 700,000 deaths averted. Last month, I wrote about Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s laudable call for the global community to create an AIDS-free generation, a goal once thought to be impossible. Moreover, historically uncooperative stakeholders are increasingly aligned with HIV prevention objectives. The government of South Africa, once the seat of AIDS denialism, now espouses mainstream scientific views about the virus. Despite many religious leaders’ reticence to support the use of condoms in HIV prevention, a variety of initiatives provide encouraging examples of how religion can serve as a vehicle in the fight against AIDS. (more…)